Demographic projections

Days after closing on a 100-acre land purchase north of Old Weatherford Road, the Aledo School District Board of Trustees met on Monday, Dec. 18, for their regular monthly meeting.

The procured land sits to the north of McAnally Middle School and to the northeast of the future Lynn McKinney Elementary School site currently under construction. 

Aledo ISD traded 50 acres of land it previously owned for a 50-acre parcel owned by Walsh Ranch to go along with the purchase of the adjoining 50 acres. The district spent $1.95 million of the $7 million budgeted for the acquisition of land afforded by the passage of the 2023 Bond Election last spring. 

The newly purchased property is intended to house a second high school facility once the need arises. No plans for a second high school currently exist.

To go along with the land procurement, the board welcomed Kris Pool to the meeting on Monday. Pool represents Population and Survey Analysts (PASA), a third-party demographics company utilized by the district to ensure they are prepared for the future growth that will inevitably take place. 

Pool spent the first few minutes of her presentation providing the board with an update on where the official numbers for the district landed versus PASA’s projections for the year. The birth rate and average number of children per household in the district continued to tick up over the last year from 0.59 children per household in 2022 to 0.61 children per household in 2023. 

PASA expected the incoming kindergarten class to grow by 73 students across the district for this school year. However, the actual number of kindergarten enrollees shrank by five students compared to 2022, missing projections by a net of 78 students.

Contrarily, second grade enrollment exceeded expectations for the year, growing by a total of 87 students.

Pool mentioned a majority of the growth coming into the district stems from new home construction. New homes constructed in the district are responsible for approximately 400 new students a year right now. That number is expected to increase to around 900 students per year over the next 10 years.

PASA put together their projected growth track for the district, highlighting three scenarios they believe are the most likely outcomes given the historic growth trends recorded for Aledo ISD. 

In their slow-growth trend projection, PASA noted Aledo ISD’s total enrollment for the 2023-24 school year is 8,146 students. In this scenario, if the lower kindergarten class size experienced this year becomes a norm due to housing developments slowing across the district in the event mortgage rates stay high, birth rates stabilize rather than increase, and charter schools move into the district, PASA projected total enrollment for the 2033-34 school year to be 14,145.

In their moderate-growth scenario, where mortgage rates flatline resulting in fewer new home purchases in the district, kindergarten class sizes continue along the previously recognized trend with this year being an anomaly, and only one new charter school moving into the district, their projection is for the district to more than double over the next 10 years to 16,811.

In the high-growth projection scenario, PASA expects mortgage rates to decline prior to the election, birth rates to increase along their current trend, no notable development of charter schools in the district, and the kindergarten class sizes to increase year-to-year as expected, they predict Aledo ISD could be responsible for educating 20,105 students by 2033.

Season of giving

Trustee Jennifer Taylor took a moment at the beginning of the meeting to recognize the AdvoCats group for all their work this holiday season with their “Angel Project.” AdvoCats received enough donations to impact approximately 250 families in the community by ensuring over 600 students district-wide will have presents under the tree to open on Christmas morning.

Legislative update

For several months in a row, Trustee David Lear’s legislative update has been that there are no updates. Unfortunately, that did not change on Monday night. 

After four special sessions, the Texas State Legislature was unable to pass a bill to provide public education funding for school districts across the state. Schools are still using the funding formulas they used in 2019 and adopting deficit budgets. 

Gov. Greg Abbott could call another special session after the holidays, though that doesn’t seem likely.

Most likely, what will happen is school funding will go to voters and appear on the ballot during the election in 2024. 

Last day to register to vote in the primaries is Feb. 5. The first day of early voting is Feb. 20. Election day for the Republican and Democratic primaries is Tuesday, March 5.